Semra Sevi

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• Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte@turnbulldugarte.com04/11/2026 15:57

  A small transparency note on the road-to-publication with this piece. doi.org/10.1017/psrm... We received 3 desk rejects & 1 referee reject before getting an R&R at PSRM. The main critique was "there is no theory and this is only an empirical contribution" Some thoughts \🧵

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• Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte@turnbulldugarte.com04/11/2026 15:57

  As we have seen from several meta-analytical studies, like the recent @semrasevi.bsky.social, @aecoppock.bsky.social & friends piece on candidate choice experiments, is that the estimates we have of different estimands are very noisy so we need *more* replication alexandercoppock.com/coppock_etal...

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• Alex Coppock@aecoppock.bsky.social21/10/2026 14:17

  It's really true! Y_post - Y_pre ~ Z almost ALWAYS has worse precision than Y_post ~ Z + pre (compare teal "difference-in-difference" to gold "ols" in plot below)

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• Alex Coppock@aecoppock.bsky.social21/10/2026 13:25

  New working paper with Matt Blyth, Marco Aviña, and @semrasevi.bsky.social ! paper: alexandercoppock.com/coppock_etal... shiny: anonymouspoliticalscientist.shinyapps.io/afcp-explorer/ Answer to the title question: effects of partisanship and policy are much bigger than demographics or experience

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• Brendan Nyhan@brendannyhan.bsky.social21/10/2026 12:46

  Friends: We have to stop running experiments where the outcome is a difference score. It is strictly worse in terms of statistical power. declaredesign.org/blog/posts/u... Control for the pre-treatment outcome instead! (example)

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