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Phil Harris

@phil-harris.bsky.social did:plc:f2dr2a6bq6mm7b6b7b23jz2e

Long-retired academic. Obsessed with politics. Music nerd. Compulsive walker and wine drinker

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Phil Harris (@phil-harris.bsky.social) est sur Bluesky depuis le 17 août 2024. Le compte a 595 abonnés, suit 1 859 comptes et a publié 444 posts.

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  • Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

    Overall this is strong for the PM, only challenge in addition to Scot/Wales is efficiency in England: there's fewer Greens/LDs to squeeze in Red Wall seats so hope for victory there runs through a split right and/or winning soft Con/Reform. Makerfield byelection is the template. End!

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  • Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

    One v important thing to say is Scotland and Wales matter hugely for Lab next time and Lab/SNP and Lab/Plaid swing voters are too small to be captured properly in national datasets - so worth tracking those in dedicated Scotland and Wales polling, which will try and do.

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  • Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

    Taken together and considering voter group size, the Burnham bounce breaks down as follows: 27% is Lab->Green clawback 17% is Lib Dem converts 13% is Con 24 converts 12% Lab->LD clawback 11% Lab->DK clawback 11% Green 24 converts 5% Lab-> Reform clawback 3% Reform 24 converts

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  • Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social

    Here's the trends over time. Slight increase in Lab->Con defection (in first graph) more than offset by Con->Lab defection (second graph).

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  • Ed Poole@edpoole1975.bsky.social

    It seems war is coming to the Green Party. This war is a familiar one. Something similar (but not quite the same) played out in the Labour party in 2015-2019. The dominant liberal tendency in the Green Party has been supplanted by the socialist tendency and they aren't going to take it laying down.

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