Nate

@nategm.bsky.social did:plc:vmfmrqo5leanlxl5ujq3676l

Rando. Game design enjoyer cursed to also follow public policy. My most defining attribute is my lack of interesting attributes.

Bei Bluesky seit 8 Oktober 2023

Zusammenfassung

Nate (@nategm.bsky.social) ist seit 8 Oktober 2023 auf Bluesky. Das Konto hat 984 Follower, folgt 155 Konten und hat 831 Posts veröffentlicht.

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brasidas@brasidas.bsky.social02.11.2026 17:27
And to be clear, the polls can be right and the democrats can lose the Senate. If the dems get within 2 points of the republicans in each of these battlegrounds, that's within the margin of error in the aggregate polling averages. Which is kind of the structural argument.
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brasidas@brasidas.bsky.social02.11.2026 17:27
I kind of see the odds for the GOP as worse than drawing to an inside straight on the turn and river and a backdoor flush. To win, Republicans need a really good election day turn out, which is not impossible by any stretch.
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brasidas@brasidas.bsky.social02.11.2026 17:26
All three effects will likely matter. It’s the relative weights that determine which will dominate.
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brasidas@brasidas.bsky.social02.11.2026 17:26
If you see ME and MI going to the GOP with NC and GA going to the Dems, that’s a candidate quality argument. If you think TX will never go for a Democrat, that’s structural. For example.
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brasidas@brasidas.bsky.social02.11.2026 17:26
I think there’s three (or more) hypotheses here: the environment dominates, candidate quality (and campaign effectiveness) dominates, and structural factors dominate.
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