Mo Hossain
@mohossain.bsky.social did:plc:fplvykk3mwjpjrz3brktqmf2
Investor. I take advice. Sharing things I'm learning. re(Post) ≠ E
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Zusammenfassung
Mo Hossain (@mohossain.bsky.social) ist seit 12 Juni 2024 auf Bluesky. Das Konto hat 123 Follower, folgt 2 Konten und hat 2.058 Posts veröffentlicht.
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AI capex ≠ just a tech story. It’s increasingly a macro/GDP variable. Since Q1’23, AI investment has contributed to GDP growth in all but 1 qtr, .. ~0.6pp annualized. Marginal constraint is local: power, permitting, zoning, water. The AI→capex→GDP flywheel ultimately runs through municipalities.
Post anzeigenAI is escaping SV and entering the real economy: Hyperscaler capex: $416B → $795B → $1.076T Data centers: 49GW live vs 346GW building/planned Hiring: construction → manufacturing AI capex cycle now trails only the ’90s tech boom. AI ≠ app cycle. AI = infrastructure cycle. www.ennovance.com
Post anzeigen• Payrolls still > ~20k breakeven • Initial claims remain benign • Continuing claims have fallen toward ~1.70M from ~1.95M • U-rate rise since 2023 unusually shallow vs prior cycles • BofA sees Oct payrolls +75k, unemployment ~4.2% Fed’s problem remains inflation, not jobs. x.com/mohossain/st...
Post anzeigenPE continuation vehicles: >$55B in 1H26. GP needs liquidity + wants more time with winners. LP gets a take-it-or-leave-it deal. Same manager sits at the center of both sides. Useful structure, obvious agency problem. Liquidity ≠ alignment. x.com/mohossain/st...
Post anzeigenAmerica’s consumer balance sheet is awash in liquidity… cash ≈5× pre-COVID, debt service historically low, corporate margins near records, AI capex ≠ economy-wide employment, and rising portfolio monetization is increasingly funding consumption. x.com/mohossain/st...
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