this year I think there is more reason to worry about another 2025-esque miss that underestimates Ds, because a lot of pollsters appear to be modeling on 2022/2024 electorates and I don’t think that matches the enthusiasm gap we’re seeing

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the way I look at this is you’ve got to take each election as its own thing and look at where the possible error sources might be and consider why you should worry about them e.g. the “shy Trump voter” thing was a real concern in 2024 and it turned out to be correct

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I think there is a lot of cynicism about polling because of what we’ve seen in the last three presidential elections, and I can’t blame people for worrying however, we have not seen similar errors in trump-era non-presidential elections and the last data point we have (VA/NJ 2025) had a pro-R error

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Ah yes, those poor innocent Germans, who bore no responsibility whatsoever for believing whatever lies the Nazis told them.

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The US population wasn't mind controlled by the media into believing that. The US population chose to believe dumb shit and direct their clicks and eyes and ears to further dumb shit. The media leaped on that story because their customers demanded it and would have gotten it elsewhere if need be.

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