beshearstan.bsky.social
Kentuckian | Fan of the best American governor! | Follow for more political content, analysis, and takes!
👤 Joined on 24 Temmuz 2023
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Madison County is 25% Latino and 20% Black. If there is a callais surge and a bakclash which increased turnout is suggesting these district will not give the normal margin they give to republicans
Show Posttoday is the last day of early voting. and this is also historically the least white most low propensity day and turnout has surged in every big county the last day of early voting
Show PostIdk how to square this with all the GOP officials in Texas publicly admitting things don’t look great
Show PostThe gap was enormous before though. It's still huge. Again, caveating that you don't know who's voting in these locations and just taking the margins as given, my back of the envelope math says Talarico wins with these turnout patterns with zero persuasion or shift in independent support.
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