My forecasting model distribution (purple) vs the distribution of the prediction markets (blue) is interesting. Mine has a much lower standard deviation and variance vs the market which is a much smoother distribution.

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Maybe it's ptsd from presidential elections but I'm still factoring in an assumption that Republicans outperform the polls. There's also a likelihood that Dems over perform and that scenario is 250+ house seats and 55 seats in the senate. That would be historic. Though I wouldn't get my hopes up.

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Built my own forecasting model for the midterms and even with an assumption of republican overperforming the polls by 1.7 points, the Dems are a lock for taking the house and very likely to take the senate.

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I know you can't speedrun heartbreak but I sure would like to 🙄

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A Trump policy strategist said: “Funds taken away from one university could eventually make their way to other schools whose behavior and ideology the White House approved of”. This article is an incredibly accurate summary of what Trump is doing to US science, and utterly infuriating.

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