Go read Ralston's newest Nevada early vote blog - I believe this may be a very telling piece of data to observe "12.3% of Republican ballots so far came from 2022 Election Day voters, against 6.2% for Democrats." That's nearly double the EDay "cannibalization" dreaded for Dems hitting GOP instead.

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Strong maga showing today at my NY-17 early vote station.

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By the way last week Neera Tanden said that Haley would be a stronger candidate than Abdul because Mike Rogers wouldn't be able to attack Haley as anti-Israel lol

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Early turnout is particularly good for Dems in CO-03, and I think that could've been picked up from our Proportio tool. Most similar districts are all ones that Dems are favored to flip now, even if they are in completely different states (NC-11, MT-01). electioncord.com/proportio/

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Sure, but 2022 is what we have to compare to and it's certainly what everyone else is comparing to. I agree that Iowa is weird but I wouldn't say I would be exactly worry-free right now if I were Sarah Trone Garriott or Lindsay James.

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