The S&P is still cranking along based almost entirely on the Mag 7. If anyone ever notices that three companies passing around the same dogeared IOU isn't "revenue", it's gonna get ugly fast.

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Especially when the cabinet is comprised entirely of insane vipers with noncongruent agendas. Trump is a chaos muppet, but he will _occasionally_ shy away from a bad idea if he thinks it might blow up and reflect poorly on him. Two years of Hegseth+Rubio+Vought freelancing is an unsettling prospect.

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there's a lot of momentum, but, man, two years is a long time for an org that big to be completely rudderless

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yeah, I think my most optimistic case is that Trump gets some combination of bored / depressed / incapacitated that he just spends most of the next two years holed up in one of his bedrooms scrolling AI memes and building a pile of Big Mac wrappers while the entire government runs on momentum.

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we are going to be extremely, extraordinarily lucky if we get out of this administration without facing a major acute crisis (i'm specifying acute to separate this from the many major, ongoing, slower-moving crises they've already caused)

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