Not just the polling, but the turnout. One reason the polling is swinging towards Dems is we're seeing surprising turnout, especially among non-Cuban Latinos.

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There's a scenario (no longer likely, IMO) where you see Senate races turn but not House races. There's still a scenario where the Dems have a 2 seat majority in the Senate -- enough to get by the Fetterman block -- but just a narrow majority in the House.

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The REASON TX-Sen's polling is so much more blue than TX-Gov is that Paxton is a historically loathsome candidate. But there are plenty of House races with similarly historically loathsome candidates, like Anthony Constantino in NY-21. It's in play, but would require a bigger wave bc it's more GOP

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This is a really helpful explanation about how the various sizes of the Blue Wave will effect the election from Nate Cohn, but I think it's wrong in one key way: States are not gerrymandered and candidate quality becomes exposed at a lower level. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/29/u...

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It's like an actual report, on Congressional letterhead and everything, and many, many people in my real life which is full of really informed people are like "whaa, what are you talking about??"

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