"The Water Will Come" was inspired by a walk around Sunset Harbor neighborhood of Miami Beach during king tides, during which I was knee-deep in the Atlantic Ocean. My working title was "Letters from Atlantis." (my brilliant editor at Little, Brown suggested "The Water Will Come")

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Astonishing! During this morning's king tide, Miami crossed the threshold for "Major" flooding without a hurricane for the first time. This was the city's highest water level in 11 years, and 3rd-highest since 1994. Yellow highlights: 8 of 14 top spots are from king tides during the past 2 years.

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In 4+ years of making these forecasts every day, I've never seen anything like this. The ensemble median actually exceeds the major flood threshold at Lake Worth on Tuesday.

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Now that the one day of Subtropical Storm Josephine action is over with, here's where the Atlantic ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) stands for the season: almost 18% of average. It has now surpassed some other quiet seasons in the satellite era through October 22: 1983 (La Niña) and 1994 (El Niño).

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HISTORIC HEAT IN THE CARIBBEAN Extraordinary record heat is sweeping all tropical Americas, with record heat everywhere,every day. Today the Vc Bird International Airport rose to 34.4C. which is the HIGHEST OCTOBER TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

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