Yes, there is a chance polling either is understating Ds or is spot on, I do think there's something to be said for these red states undercounting Rs though. Even a 53-47(ish) win by Hamilton would be massive though. I think if he wins it'll more 50-48 (w/ 3rd parties).

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Btw credit to finding this one goes to my guy @davidcrowleyfan.bsky.social

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Nothing bad can happen it can only good happen

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hm, off VoteHub estimates, I actually think an R+30 EDay is at least theoretically feasible for R’s. It’s far less likely they catch up in Texas bc of how strong the Dem new voter rate has been

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Here are our estimated benchmarks for IN-5, for a Democrat to win it by 0.01%. As this will be the first place we get significant results from, it'll be notable to see how Dems perform in this suburban Indianapolis district. LINK: electioncord.com/permutator/

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