Hipkins had to perform at Mike Moore 1993 levels to win this election, which structurally looks quite similar to 1993, adjusted for the MMP environment. Does Hipkins have the charisma and nous of Mike Moore? We'll shortly find out.

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(House effects here. As much as many may dislike it, curia is the least swingy)

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Reminder that Verian has a massive house effect in National's favour. Even with that, they'd still be ahead of Labour on this poll. But also basically unable to form government. So... to return to my eternal conclusion: coin flip vibes continue.

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2009 was 17 years ago. That does not feel right.

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Do people really think it's current hard left voters driving OPP? No! It's soft centrists pissed at Labour and people who stayed at home or voted Nat last time. It's growing the non right wing vote in the centre without hiving off meaningful amounts of genuine left wing support. That's good!

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