The "you people live in a bubble" critique is, it brings me no pleasure to say, an absolute JDAM directly over target.

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My forecasting model distribution (purple) vs the distribution of the prediction markets (blue) is interesting. Mine has a much lower standard deviation and variance vs the market which is a much smoother distribution.

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Maybe it's ptsd from presidential elections but I'm still factoring in an assumption that Republicans outperform the polls. There's also a likelihood that Dems over perform and that scenario is 250+ house seats and 55 seats in the senate. That would be historic. Though I wouldn't get my hopes up.

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Built my own forecasting model for the midterms and even with an assumption of republican overperforming the polls by 1.7 points, the Dems are a lock for taking the house and very likely to take the senate.

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I know you can't speedrun heartbreak but I sure would like to 🙄

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