I've been talking a lot about the early voters who didn't vote at all in 2024. I wrote up a quick analysis of the national numbers for these surge voters, and what they can tell us about election day. tombonier.substack.com/p/reshaping-...

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I love this letter.

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Well, it's after midnight here, so officially Halloween, so here's a treat: In Louisiana the early vote is +3 D, as compared to +9 R at this point in 2024. Even more impressive, those who have voted already but didn't vote in '24 at all are +30 Dem.

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This could be like five things today!

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#earlyvote afternoon update 10/28: at least 43 million people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...

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