Glad to see more of the wider rugby community coming to understand what Welsh fans have known for some time.

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so at this stage of the game we have the following sources of information: 1) polls. will miss very late movement on account of linear nature of time; subject to all the problems polls have; still the best we can do.

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2) observed actions by players with private information, like spending moves in various states. can sometimes infer private information from this; note that private information isn't necessarily correct, it's just private.

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4) observable changes in information environment. you can try to figure out what these are going to do to votes if you want. i mostly wouldn't, though-- lots of votes are already cast and every time you add link in the chain of reasoning you get less accurate.

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3) prediction markets. the theoretical promise here is that this surfaces other private information but practically it's just vibes until we get vote reporting-- money-backed vibes, though, for better or worse.

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