ngl it is crazy how every developed country has: 1. A colossal old age benefits system that amounts to a huge share of public spending 2. A public that bemoans excess "welfare" spending on undeservings but will riot at the suggestion of (1) being reduced

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ok ok now that I've said this I can't stop myself from weighing in. The long tradition of the big tech business goes something like this: you build a product which has basically zero marginal cost per user. You scale this to a billion users. Then you find a way to monetize those billion users.

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But forecasting this becomes incredibly hard because you have to predict - how good will the models get - how cheap will inference get - elasticity of demand with respect to model capability - how easily can competitors enter the market I do expect this to lead to some volatility in this sector.

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But AI needs more than "any positive amount" of money, it needs enough to pay for inference. And I honestly don't know if a billion people are willing to pay what inference costs. Maybe they are. Inference is getting cheaper. But I do have doubts about this.

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This is not how AI works. AI has positive marginal cost. Every additional user costs real money. Serving a billion users is a thousand times more expensive than serving a million users. This complicates things for the traditional path, to put it mildly.

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