lol yeah. 40% is crazy for them, here I'm being all nice saying their ceiling could be 43%

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Filing this away for later that we've got a D+39.5 Hispanic data point... prior to 29.1% nonpartisans Some *obvious* skew because it's EV but I still think it *could* imply a good national average I'll keep collecting any other nicely measurable averages like this to compare of course

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I've been a little inconsistent but after seeing the EV, I do not think Bengs has a path to winning in South Dakota. Locking in Safe R. So yeah if you want to count this as a sign of doom sure but I think Dems will manage, none of my other ratings are affected.

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Or promoting a US House candidate IN ALASKA who doesn't live there and isn't eligible to serve anyway. alaskabeacon.com/2026/10/30/a...

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I think these margins are low (but there's plenty of undecideds tbf) That said I'm here quoting to call attention to Keith Ellison running completely respectably vs other Dems :) Him and Ghazala Hashmi are why I've never thought Abdul would be penalized much for his faith. He's a consistent winner

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