alaska: lean d (dem flip) peltola has led every poll here and has won statewide before I've been consistent on my lean D call here and I don't think the NYT freakout is going to flip it the other way - I think alaska voters are, by and large, going to be insulted by the story but it does scare me

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maine: lean d (dem flip) I think this is the year collins' magic runs out she hasn't run a great campaign, trump has hurt maine badly, and I don't think she gets the ticket splitters she needs to win this - she won't get enough republicans to show up but it's collins so I can't go past 'lean'

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georgia: safe d (dem hold) same story as north carolina: ossoff is going to win this by double digits, this is somehow safer than any of MN/MI/NH collins is a terrible candidate and ossoff is a great one and this is going to be a massive blowout

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new hampshire: likely d (dem hold) same story - people pretended this was going to be competitive for a while but pappas has settled into a high single digit lead and both parties are treating it like a fairly foregone conclusion at this point, no reason to worry here

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michigan: likely d (dem hold) el-sayed has been pretty consistently getting 6+ point leads in polls, early voting looks pretty good, and I think he wins by 7 and everyone freaking out about this race looks stupid will he underperform a little? probably will it matter? no

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