alaska: lean d (dem flip) peltola has led every poll here and has won statewide before I've been consistent on my lean D call here and I don't think the NYT freakout is going to flip it the other way - I think alaska voters are, by and large, going to be insulted by the story but it does scare me

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maine: lean d (dem flip) I think this is the year collins' magic runs out she hasn't run a great campaign, trump has hurt maine badly, and I don't think she gets the ticket splitters she needs to win this - she won't get enough republicans to show up but it's collins so I can't go past 'lean'

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michigan: likely d (dem hold) el-sayed has been pretty consistently getting 6+ point leads in polls, early voting looks pretty good, and I think he wins by 7 and everyone freaking out about this race looks stupid will he underperform a little? probably will it matter? no

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everyone is arguing about senate seats this morning so I'm going to give my personal rundown based on a combination of the numbers I've seen, vibes, and my own biases disclaimer: I am just some guy, as always

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Shout out specifically to this kid who crossed my social media this morning on Facebook, who insisted upon being the Edmund Fitzgerald and his mom being the Gales of November.

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