That is some gallows humor. $INTC

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For there to be a wrenching financial market downturn/recession involves an assumption that worked perfectly for the past 15+ years breaking in a major way.

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for almost a year I’ve been saying, “the stock market won’t predict the next recession. it will be the proximate cause.” this probably means it can happen a lot faster than many are modeling.

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since the beginning of 2023 SPX has added almost $70 trillion in market cap. it’s now worth more than total housing real estate value, with equities surpassing it last year. many have become very wealthy these last few years, with only ephemeral drawdowns conditioning many to always buy the dip.

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people like to joke about this in both directions, but right now — in 2026 — the stock market really is the economy. I’ll get more granular below, but the main thesis (tautological as it may sound) is that the economy has become so reliant on financial markets.

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