New WP!📄📣 For anyone working with quasi-experiments (especially UESD) and survey data, this is for you. Treatment events may affect not only opinions, but also survey participation and thereby bias causal estimates. I develop a framework to assess and tackle this bias. osf.io/preprints/so...

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Yes, Tisza had a prominent leader. But it wouldn't have succeeded without the on-the-ground mobilisation by over 2,000 semi-autonomous local groups (Tisza Islands). In the end, it was (also) civil society mobilisation that defeated Orbán.

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In any case, all I will say is that I have put the champagne on the freezer.

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Bolsonaro-friendly mayors appear to be sabotaging public transport on Election Day. Buses aren’t running in Lula-friendly areas, flights and ferries mysteriously canceled. Traffic lights have gone out and people’s power cut in Salvador, indigenous people’s travel restricted

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The next 10 days will be monumental, with elections in Serbia, Brazil, Israel and the US. This one was a victory for democracy.

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