Current Facts = Future Reality
youvoteyourfuture.bsky.social
In the past, people voted to ensure their children, grandchildren and fellow Americans would have the best life possible. Now some are voting to reinforce their current happy thoughts that align with their world view rather than future lives.
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The Fed held rates today, but markets are betting 80%+ odds that they'll hike in December. We all know inflation is running hot, so rates will have to rise. https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/the-fed-knows-it-needs-to-hike-so
Show PostLots of new economic data today. Beware of political spin from both sides GDP grew 3.4% The underlying economy looks strong (consumer spending + business investment) Investment accounted for 3.3 of the 3.4 points (AI boom). And Inflation is still hot
Show PostCPI tracks prices consumers pay out of pocket, while PCE includes spending on their behalf (like healthcare paid for by insurance). That's why the Fed prefers PCE https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/unpacking-a-datapalooza
Show PostThe real interest rate is the Fed's rate minus inflation. When inflation runs hotter, real rates fall, even if the Fed does nothing. Here's why the Fed may need to hike just to stand still.
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