kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/looking-aw...

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The mortgage crackdown made home prices collapse after 2007. That had nothing to do with building cycles. It was a novel one-time event. And it blocked cyclical recovery because now existing homes were too cheap, and remained so for 15 years. 3/3

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It is the collapse after 2007 that makes this really unusual. Housing starts should have been rising by 2008, and if they had, it would just look like cyclical jiggles. Here's Cincinnati. By late 2007 it was a deep but normal 20th century cycle, which didn't normally have much price volatility. 2/

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Honestly, what ends up shaking out of the electoral tree in the smaller state-level and lower races has me deeply curious for Election Day. Even if some of these state houses don't flip persay but large majorities suddenly become much, much smaller could be very interesting.

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I kinda hate my repro kei license plate (the spacing is all messed up) and have what my financial advisor calls "an irresponsible amount of JDM plates" on my eBay watchlist

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