What all of this suggests that Democrats' problem on trans issues has not been due to standing up for trans rights, it's a problem of Democrats not explaining why they do so. And indeed, there is evidence for this.

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Nonetheless, another high-quality study by the Democratic-leaning firm Blueprint found that anti-trans attitudes are influential in a latent sense because they seem to be part of the larger Republican effort to portray Democrats as cultural "elites."

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Left-wing parties have little to gain by abandoning trans people, but they do have a lot to lose if they do. A YouGov survey conducted earlier this year in the UK found that the Labour Party lost many of its voters because it was seen as anti-trans and too right-wing.

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Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican running in 2025 to succeed Youngkin spent the majority of her campaign ad budget on anti-trans ads. She lost by 15 points. In all the major races that year, anti-trans ads failed to move candidates past the finish line.

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The only publicly available study with a sound methodology of the Trump ads agreed with the political science consensus: it had essentially no effect. And we've seen in subsequent elections that bashing trans people cannot protect a candidate from losing.

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