The upper end wave estimates get really weird! I've almost hedged in a sense at D+14 to the "normal" 11-13 range versus these 15+ total collapses. I'm essentially arguing for a partial collapse.

Show Post

I would be very wary if I were Republicans of sudden, new turnout numbers. This does not speak to the low propensity voter being particularly favorable on Donald Trump. This will have a turnout effect, it did in 2025, it did in the other years, Republicans also fall according to gravity, yes.

Show Post

D+17 is fucking enormous holy hell.

Show Post

lmao

Show Post

I know :/ I knew it was a distant dream but it will sting if she falls just short There would be 2028 though in possibly an even more favorable environment... And the signs are fantastic so far. Angie pulled off what looked so difficult once already, she's delivering insane turnout now too.

Show Post