Yeah, Florida feels like one of those "If THIS one goes blue, we might be looking at a filibuster-proof majority for Democrats in the Senate" states.

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louisiana: likely r (republican hold) enormous Black turnout is going to scare the everliving shit out of republicans here and it's going to be closer than anyone expected but I simply do not think the southern white vote is going to disappear quite as much as it would need to for an actual flip

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mississippi: likely r (republican hold) basically the exact same story as louisiana - this is going to be close but the state is too inelastic for me to see a flip without roy moore-level turnout collapse and we aren't quite there

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south carolina: lean r (republican hold) this is a bonkers race to put in the 'lean' category but darline graham has absolutely no business in the senate and - like other southern states - Black voters are PISSED at callais and showing in big numbers imo the southern white vote is too inelastic

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kansas: lean d (dem flip) this one is shocking, but that's where the polls are pointing right now - and trump wanted to pull out of a rally here, I think he's been told marshall is going to lose I think the massive candidate quality disparity here - marshall is awful - is going to flip it

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